The International Symposium on Military Operational Research



Proceedings of the

31st International Symposium on Military OR

29th July to 1st August 2014

The symposium programme can be found here.

You may also like to see the group photograph.

The symposium included the 19th Annual Meeting of the Cornwallis Group.
The calling notice for Cornwallis XIX, which was held on 30th July, can be found here.

Invited speakers

Opening keynote: The importance of research and analysis to the military Major General Nick Pope, Director General Capability, British Army Slides
Ronnie Shephard Memorial Address Eugene P Visco, USA Address

Papers, presentations and posters

Tuesday 29th July

Extended readiness and capability regeneration – helping the MOD to understand the true implications of cost savings Emma Matthews, CORDA, BAE Systems, UK Slides
Developing capabilities in performance-based contracting – a pre-study of Swedish defence acquisition Thomas Ekstrom, FOI, and Kostas Selviaridis, Lund University, Sweden Slides
Optimisation of the Turkish Air Force personnel-course assignment process Capt Cem Malyemez, Air Force Command, Turkey Slides
The dilemma of early warning against debris caused by successful ballistic missile interception Dima Kanevsky, Rafael, Israel Slides
System maps – helping MOD optimise the generation of capability Ed Aubrey, CORDA, BAE Systems, UK Slides
Implementing the National Security Through Technology white paper – how to deliver capability in an uncertain world David Dean, Dstl, UK Slides
The purposes of operations planning: an analytical framework Paddy Turner, QinetiQ, Dr Lorraine Dodd, Cranfield University and Geoff Markham, UK Slides
Whither command and control? Analysis or crystal ball? Dr John Catherall, Edward Kennedy, David Lewthwaite, Paul Pearce, Dr Paul Syms and Ian Tamm, Dstl, UK Slides
Modelling human reasoning in dynamic time-constrained environments: the pros and cons of folk psychology Dr Emma Norling, Manchester Metropolitan University, UK, and Dr Clint Heinze, DSTO, Australia Slides

Wednesday 30th July
19th Annual Meeting of the Cornwallis Group (Cornwallis XIX)

Theme: Analysis of Commercial and Market Force Roles in Conflict Management and Mitigation

Introduction to the Cornwallis Group and to Cornwallis XIX Tony Hopkin, Dstl, UK (Managing Chair, the Cornwallis Group) Slides
Balancing regular and non-regular forces to achieve military effect Alan Lawrence, Dstl, UK Slides
'Operational' operational analysis after Afghanistan Graham Brownbill, Dstl, UK Slides
Analysis informs redeployment of materiel from Afghanistan René Nevola, Dstl, UK Slides
The impact of contractor support on operational risk Andrzej Frank, Head of OA Branch, ARRC Slides
Instituting a Value Engineering (VE) program to reduce costs of both products and services at the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) Dr Bill McDaniel and Eric Whittington, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, and John Rosbrugh, Defense Information Systems Agency, USA Slides
Murphy's Law: Clausewitzian Friction on the modern battlefield Eugene Visco, USA Slides and notes

Wednesday 30th July: Other sessions

New approaches to validation Alan Robinson and Paul Glover, Dstl, UK Slides
Workshop: Managing defence OR Dr Roger Forder, UK Slides

Thursday 31st July

Recognising when your analysis is having an impact Andy Caldwell, Dstl, UK Slides
Overseeing relations between analyst, practitioner and policy-maker: a meta-view of planning and designing for agility in a complex world Dr Lorraine Dodd, Cranfield University, Geoff Markham and Paddy Turner, QinetiQ, UK Slides
Concentration and asymmetry in air power: historical lessons for the defensive employment of small air forces Dr Niall Mackay, University of York, and Dr Chris Price, York St John University, UK Slides 1
Slides 2
Strategic cyber cost-effectiveness analysis Robin Smith, Arke Ltd, UK Slides
A capability-led approach to collaborative technology planning Kevin Smith, BAE Systems, and Jenny Young, MBDA(UK), UK Slides
Support to operations: recent history and future trends Andrzej Frank, Head of OA Branch, ARRC Contact author
On the changing nature of air combat: real and simulated Dr Michael Papasimeon and Dr Clint Heinze, DSTO, Australia Slides
Artificial intelligence algorithms and new approaches to wargame simulation Dr Stephen Lucek, Newman and Spurr Consultancy, and Dr Simon Collander-Brown, Dstl, UK Slides
Searching for the ISR Holy Grail Ruth Carpenter, Dstl, UK Slides
Time latency of information in networked operations: effect of 'human in the loop' Dr Kevin Ng, Dr Roy Mitchell, Dr B Solomon, DRDC, and Dr Natalie Lam, University of Ottawa, Canada Slides

Friday 1st August

In search of proxies for measuring fleet readiness Matthew Macleod and Dr Andrew Billyard, DRDC, Canada Slides
Measuring the relationship between energy use and military capability: historical perspectives David Bangert and John Shimell, Polaris Consulting Ltd, and Neil Davies, Defence Economics Ltd, UK Slides
Re-finding NATO doctrine – Analysis in support of the NATO doctrine development process Simon Purton, Allied Command Transformation, NATO Slides
Cornwallis XIX: Report back to 31 ISMOR Tony Hopkin, Dstl, UK Slides
31 ISMOR: themes and trends Dr Tony Sinden, Decision Analysis Services Ltd, UK Slides


30 years of OR in the UK defence industry: a young analyst's perspective Ben Ludford, CORDA, UK Poster
Actuarial analysis of warship lifespan Alistair Morley, MBDA, UK Poster
How vulnerable are you? Rob Fryer and Jonathan Hare, Dstl, and Maj Johno Breeze, Royal Centre for Defence Medicine, UK Poster
Implementing National Security Through Technology - How to deliver capability in an uncertain world David Dean, Claire Burt, Niki Jobson, Martin Ball, Max Murray-Brooks, Mike Reid and David Lowe, Dstl, UK Poster
ISS Training and Education Services Project Melissa Goodman, Actica Consulting Limited, UK Poster
Plaform Capability Assessment Tool Barry Thorne, BMT Defence Services, UK Poster
Understanding A to B: MoD's logistics modelling capability Anjna Kashyap, Dstl, UK Poster