The International Symposium on
Military Operational Research




Proceedings of the

33rd International Symposium on Military OR

26th to 29th July 2016

Invited speakers

Opening keynote Jonathan Nancekivell-Smith, Director of Performance and Analysis, Ministry of Defence, UK Presentation
Ronnie Shephard Memorial Address Dr Tony Sinden Address

Papers, presentations and posters

Tuesday 26th July

Fuel for thought: Helping the Ministry of Defence save money in the real world Oliver Dewhurst, QinetiQ, UK Presentation
Medical assets prepositioning onto air bases for the support of non-simultaneous natural disasters Fábio Ayres Cardoso* and Prof Dr Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel, Technological Institute of Aeronautics, Brazil;  Prof Dr Irineu de Brito Junior, FATEC São José dos Campos, Brazil Presentation
EMIT: A decision-support tool for MOD Test and Evaluation Dr Andrew Barwell, QinetiQ, UK Presentation
Tactical aircraft indicators Florence Dudych* and Pierre Bazot, DGA, France Presentation
From concept to completion: A progress report on the procurement process of a new Swedish sensor chain Dr Kristofer Hallgren, FOI, Sweden Presentation
A reconfigurable agent-based discrete event simulator for helicopter aircrew training Vivian Nguyen, Mina Shokr* and Dr Ana Novak, DST Group, Australia; Prof Terry Caelli*, University of Melbourne, Australia Paper
Small Arms, Small Data: Small arms shooting accuracy and the small data problem Dr John Salt, Cranfield Defence and Security, UK Presentation Paper

Wednesday 27th July

Planning for success in defence - big data and reporting projects Matt Ranson and Andy Sheppard, Triangle Information Management, UK Presentation
Discovering "unknown unknowns" and beyond. Dr Adam Svendsen, CIFS/IFF, Denmark Presentation
Ex-ante research portfolio valuation using uni-criterion analysis methods Gordon Pattison, Dstl, UK. Presentation
The origins and emergence of Australian Joint Operations Doctrine: 1946 to 1976 Jeff Malone, DST Group, Australia Presentation
Workshop: Knowledge Management Jenny Young, MBDA, UK Workshop notes
Workshop: Dismounted close combat pot luck supper Dr John Salt, Cranfield University, UK Workshop notes
Informal evening presentation: Chinese behaviour in a Korean crisis Charles Hawkins, USA Presentation

Thursday 28th July

The Military Operations Research Society and The Military Conflict Institute: Report to 33 ISMOR Gene Visco, Lockheed Martin, USA Presentation
CBRN preparedness using discrete event simulation Katherine Kerry and James Ramswell*, CORDA, UK Presentation Paper
Developing an integrated approach to the analysis of MOD cyber-related risks James Tate and Colette Jeffrey, Dstl, UK Presentation
Holding the mirror up: exploiting experience-based evidence to reshape a military headquarters Karen Clark, Gordon Niven* and Jim Hill, Dstl, UK Presentation
Uncovering buried treasure: Characterising the consequences of change Richard Wood*, Dan Page and Ben Randall, Roke Manor Research, UK Presentation
Assessing strategy for future UAS software procurement Andrew Mills* and Robin Smith, Arke Ltd, UK Presentation
Military Judgement with a dash of logic: Royal Navy case studies Will Jones* and R Adm (rtd) Malcolm Cree, Catalyze Ltd, UK Presentation
Managing challenges for defence analysis: an MCDA approach for strategic decisions Peter Bailey*, Dstl, UK and Dr Thitima Pitinanondha, DST Group, Australia Presentation
Balance of investment to mitigate risks to capability: FASIP case study Ben Ludford, CORDA, UK Presentation
Informing strategic decision-making on force posture and readiness Yvan Gauthier* and Peter Archambault, DRDC, Canada Presentation Paper
Crocodiles and Chameleons: Keeping it snappy and adapting to moving goalposts in the UK's Strategic Defence and Security Review Katherine Peplow* and Michael Wareing, Dstl, UK Presentation

Friday 29th July

Using a machine learning approach to improve the intelligence analysis process Tom Baldwin, Polaris Consulting, UK Presentation
Implications of UAV endurance on Effective Time on Station (ETOS) and cost per ETOS Hour Tom Collipi, Northrop Grumman, USA Presentation
SAS-108: Methods to support decision making for joint fires Marcel Smit, TNO, The Netherlands and Jenny Young*, MBDA, UK Presentation Paper
Our chief weapon is surprise: a quantitative study of historical air manoeuvre operations Paul Syms, Dstl, UK Presentation
33 ISMOR: Themes and trends Dr Tony Sinden, Decision Analysis Services Ltd, UK Presentation


At the heart of force protection Lucy Allanson-Bailey, Dstl, UK Poster
Divergence Assessment: Addressing the challenge of support cost predictions Stuart Cole, Arke Ltd, UK Poster
Goal versus target orientation in military reconnaissance operations: developing guidelines for effectively gathering information Suzanne van Trijp, TNO and Royal Netherlands Army Poster
How operational research shaped the design and execution of the MOD's new operating model for defence science and technology Andrew Beard, Dstl, UK Poster
Now you see us - now you don't: community detection in multi-level networks Eric McGinnis, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, USA Poster
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).  A case study on the use of OSINT during the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) - Strengths and challenges Judith van de Kuijt, TNO, The Netherlands Poster
Strategic gaming: Learning through experience Mike Bagwell, Dstl, UK Poster
Understanding the future operating environment for complex weapons - An air-air missile case study Joshua Ellington, MBDA, UK Poster

* denotes the presenter(s) of a multi-author paper