The International Symposium on
Military Operational Research




Proceedings of the

32nd International Symposium on Military OR

21st to 24th July 2015

The symposium programme can be found here

Invited speakers

Opening keynote Air Marshal Philip Osborn CBE RAF, Chief of Defence Intelligence Biography
Ronnie Shephard Memorial Address Dr Frances Saunders CB FREng, President of the Institute of Physics Biography

Papers, presentations and posters

Tuesday 21st July

Russian next generation/hybrid warfare study: using Crimea to assess the vulnerability of the Baltic states W Sam Lauber, National Security Analysis Department, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, USA Presentation
Support to operations assessment in the 1 German/Netherlands Corps Joachim Reitan, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Presentation
Front Line OA training for an uncertain future Hannah Locke, Dstl, UK Presentation
From Afghanistan to Africa: modelling bed requirements for healthcare workers in Sierra Leone Jordan Low*, Charlotte Vallily and Samantha Rose, Dstl, UK Presentation
The representation of stabilisation operations at the tactical level Colin Mason and Noel Corrigan*, CORDA, UK. Presentation
Force mix analysis in the context of the Canadian Armed Forces Michel Couillard*, Lise Arseneau, Cheryl Eisler and Ben Taylor, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Defence R&D Canada Presentation Paper
A novel analysis approach to assess the personnel requirement for the UK national energetics capability Martin Parr, Dstl, UK Presentation
Wargaming to support strategic planning Murray Dixson*, Michel Couillard, Thierry Gongora and Paul Massel, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Defence R&D Canada Presentation Paper
Perspectives on the use of air power by Russia Dr David Sloggett, Visiting Research Fellow, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, UK Presentation

Wednesday 22nd July

Comparing observation satellite constellations - a novel approach using binary integer programing Oria Abrass, Israel Presentation
Modelling and simulation use risk identification and management Simone Youngblood, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, USA Presentation
Concept Development Assessment Game (CDAG) in support of NATO logistics optimization Maj Renato Luigi Marzo, Operational Analysis Branch, NATO ACT Presentation
Anatomy of an insurgency Dr David Sloggett, Visiting Research Fellow, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, UK Presentation
Afghan National Police Security Forces Assistance: understanding and reporting the truth to commanders Richard Devonshire, Dstl,UK Presentation Notes
Towards a theory of Joint – a lesson in going back to basics Donald Lowe, Tim McKay* and Wayne Hobbs, Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Australia Presentation
Learning the wrong lessons? Naval operational research during a long peace Paul Adam, Cassandra Defence Consulting Ltd, UK Presentation
Conceptualising joint doctrine as a capability system using a Soft Systems Methodology approach Jeff Malone, Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Australia Presentation
Making it STARC! Proposed future ways forward for contemporary military and special operations intelligence and knowledge work Dr Adam Svendsen, Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, Denmark Presentation
Workshop: Human Environment Analysis Reasoning Tool (HEART) Phil Jones, Dstl, UK Note

Thursday 23rd July

Assessing the relationship between operational performance and affordability throughout the life cycle Tom Collipi, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, USA Presentation
Assessing the wider resilience of the UK defence industrial supply chain Jay Edwards, CORDA, UK Presentation Paper
Delivering things right AND delivering the right things: a P3M approach to balance of investment decisions David Starling, Actica Consulting Ltd, UK Presentation
Management information toolset to support evidence-based decisions for defence evaluation capabilities Mark Hunaban, QinetiQ Ltd, UK Presentation
Morphological analysis of defence procurement Dr Philippa Hiscock*, Jonathan Hodges and Michael Bagg, Roke Manor Research Ltd, UK Presentation
A Defence Standards decision support tool: a Bayesian belief network approach Tom Baldwin*, Polaris Consulting Ltd, and Dr Matthew Revie, John Shimell, Prof Tim Bedford and Prof Lesley Walls, University of Strathclyde, UK Presentation
Modelling environmental effects on radar detection Kyle Kliewer, Lockheed Martin, USA Presentation
Suppression and the efficiency of infantry soldiers Dr Eylam Gofer, Ben Levav* and Yohay Gerafy, Rafael, Israel Presentation
The Joint Intelligence Model – quantitative and qualitative insights for the intelligence enterprise Richard Adrian-Harris, Dstl, UK Presentation
Analysing the impact of a cyber attack using economic value chains Dr Andrew Barwell, QinetiQ Ltd, UK Presentation
Human behavior nearby an explosion – characterization for military use Philip Tannor, Israel Presentation Paper

Friday 24th July

Capturing the technology risks of advanced weapon system projects John Moore, QinetiQ Ltd, UK Presentation
IPATCH: Collection and fusion of maritime piracy data Tom Cane, BMT Group Ltd, UK Presentation
Use of fractal-based approaches in the assessment of the recognized Canadian maritime picture Dr Peter Dobias*, S Horn, M J Liu, Cheryl Eisler and K Sprague, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, Defence R&D Canada Presentation Paper
Operational analysis at Combined Maritime Forces William Wardrop*, Dstl and Maritime Warfare Centre, UK, and Matt Macleod, Defence R&D Canada Presentation
32 ISMOR: themes and trends Dr Tony Sinden, Decision Analysis Services Ltd, UK Presentation


Course loading optimisation Cheryl Eisler, Dr Peter Dobias and Owen Lu, Defence R&D Canada Poster
Options assessment for Agile people Tony Fryer, Actica Consulting Ltd, UK Poster
Non-compliant boarding operations: potential for non-lethal weapons employment Dr Peter Dobias and Cheryl Eisler, Defence R&D Canada, and LCdr W Lund, Canadian Fleet Pacific Poster
Support to the UK Ministry of Defence’s New Employment Model Ed Aubrey, CORDA, UK Poster
Value for money from wicked problems Jonathan Hodges, Dr Philippa Hiscock and Michael Bagg, Roke Manor Research Ltd, and Alyck Spraggins and Carl Dalton, Polaris Consulting Ltd, UK Poster
GAMOV: Towards more affordable and capable modelling Nick Bell, Dstl, UK Poster
Analysis Support Construct CORDA, UK Poster
Project delivery – a scrutiny perspective Phil Sayer, Ministry of Defence, UK Poster

* denotes the presenter of a multi-author paper