The International Symposium on
Military Operational Research




Proceedings of the

34th International Symposium on Military OR

18th to 21st July 2017

Invited speakers

Opening keynote Dr Dai Morris, Head of Capability (Weapons, Evaluation and Capability Assurance), Ministry of Defence, UK Biography
Ronnie Shephard Memorial Address Tony O'Connor, Chief Analyst, Ministry of Defence, and Government Chief Operational Researcher, UK Biography

Presentations and papers

Tuesday 18th July

Strategic Risk Framework Chris Wragg, Aleph Insights, UK Presentation
Modelling multidimensional opinion exchange in community networks with application to information operations using agent-based modelling Florian Roessler, Annie Hou and Bernard Kujawski, Sandtable, UK Presentation
A simulation-based approach to assess the implications of enemy action on operational performance Tom Collipi, Northrop Grumman, USA Presentation
Project portfolio analysis under uncertainty Andrew Stocks, Dstl, UK Presentation
The Evidence Framework Approach: Assessing evidence fitness for purpose Paul Pearce, Dstl, UK Presentation
Keep it real - optimism bias vs historical analysis Alistair Morley, MBDA, UK Presentation
Validating Lanchester Models: the first 60 years Paul Syms, Dstl, UK Presentation

Wednesday 19th July

Analysis of naval air defence Erik Berglund, Per Brämming and Majbritt Hansson, Swedish Defence Research Agency Presentation
Examining the use of operational analysis across BAE Systems: present day and into the near future Alan Stitt, BAE Systems CORDA, UK Presentation
Combatant design and fleet mix assessment and optimisation using BAEFASIP Chris Brett, Dstl, and Dr Malcolm Courts, BAE Systems Maritime, UK Presentation
Decision making under uncertainty and complexity - Bringing morphological analysis out of the shadows and into the future Bruce Garvey, Strategy Foresight, UK Presentation
The Lanchester Truel: attrition dynamics of multilateral war Professor Niall MacKay, University of York, UK Presentation
An automated method for large-scale comprehensive risk management of cyber security Aryeh Wides, Israel Presentation
Assisting Defence decision makers in a complex and resource-limited world Robin Smith, Arke Ltd, UK Presentation
Cost effective replacement management: planning replacement to save money Callum Woodhall, QinetiQ, UK Presentation

Thursday 20th July

Towards a predictive model for Type 45 energy usage: Initial insights from analysis of Type 45 platform data-sets Dr Andy Hill, BAE Systems CORDA, UK Presentation
Time is money Carlin McCormack and Martin Seasman, Polaris Consulting, UK Presentation
Fiscal rules for the Armed Forces Kjetil Hatlebakk Hove, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Presentation
Modelling Training: A case study from Army HQ Simon Strong, Roke, UK Presentation

Friday 21st July

Adapting Army planning to new National Security challenges Major Jérémy Le Corre and Florence Dudych, DGA, France Presentation
Determination of naval gun system firing patterns to combat manoeuvring surface targets Dr Peter Young, DRDC, Canada Presentation
A model based approach to system of systems risk management and its application to close air support planning Andrew Kinder, ATEQ Consulting Ltd, UK Presentation
Thoughts on modelling suppression Dr John Salt, Cranfield Defence and Security, UK Presentation
An autonomous time dependent swarm routing system for real time investigation Kyriacos Antoniades, Icarus and Daedalus, UK Presentation


Application of the Evidence Framework Approach Paul Pearce and Paul Glover, Dstl, UK Notes and resources
How do we improve Lanchester combat models in defence decision-making? Dr Paul Syms, Dstl, UK Report
Training for analysts Jenny Young, MBDA, UK Notes


FASIP - Functional Analysis of System Implementation Parameters Dr Malcom Courts, BAE Systems Maritime, UK Poster